World War 3 Has Begun: The Rise of AGI
Part 2: How China is Waging a World War with AI, Algorithms, and Ancient Strategy
Yesterday, I laid the groundwork for how AI is disrupting the global balance of power. So today follows part 2- again with a longer article.
The deeper I dive, the clearer it becomes: this isn’t just disruption—it’s war. A new kind of world war. Silent, digital, and insidious. And at the heart of it lies China, waging a conflict that transcends borders, fueled by AI, algorithms, and a playbook thousands of years old. And eventually it will emerge into a full fledged war as we know it.
A Personal Perspective: Understanding China’s Mindset
I grew up in Taiwan, a nation defined by its precarious relationship with China. My brother was born there and later married the daughter of a Shanghai Communist Party member. That gave me a unique vantage point to observe the culture, ambitions, and strategies of modern China.
What’s happening today isn’t random. It’s deliberate. To understand China’s geopolitical moves, you have to understand the legacy of its history and philosophy. For thousands of years, China has played the long game. It doesn’t think in election cycles or fiscal quarters—it thinks in dynasties.
Sun Tzu’s The Art of War isn’t just a relic; it’s a playbook. Its principles echo in every aspect of China’s strategy:
“All warfare is based on deception.”
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
“Appear at points which the enemy must hasten to defend; march swiftly to places where you are not expected.”
Sound familiar? These ideas are alive and well in China’s strategies today.
China’s Chosen Battlefield: AI and Algorithms
China didn’t stumble into AI leadership—it chose it. AI is the perfect weapon for a country that prioritizes control, influence, and long-term domination. The tools of this war are invisible to most, but their effects are profound:
Mass Distraction Algorithms: TikTok isn’t just an app—it’s a weapon. In the West, it feeds users endless loops of trivial dances and dopamine hits, eroding focus and productivity. In China, its counterpart Douyin promotes STEM education, patriotism, and discipline. This isn’t cultural coincidence—it’s calculated asymmetry.
Mass Deception AI: DeepSeek is a prime example of AI weaponized for narrative control. This Chinese-developed AI model, now the #1 app on the Apple Store, doesn’t just scrub mentions of Tiananmen Square while amplifying criticism of Western policies—it actively reconstructs reality to align with state-approved narratives. While DeepSeek is open-source, allowing developers to run it locally or via API without explicit censorship guardrails, the real issue lies at its core: the bias is embedded in its very foundation. Like all large language models, DeepSeek reflects the biases of the content it was trained on. However, in this case, the dataset has been deliberately curated to promote specific ideological perspectives while suppressing others. This isn’t just censorship—it’s a systematic reprogramming of collective memory, engineered through AI.
Mass Domination: By democratizing AI through open-source tools, China is embedding its influence into global ecosystems. DeepSeek’s R1 model and Alibaba’s QwQ aren’t just technological gifts—they’re Trojan Horses. They invite the world to use them while subtly aligning with China’s values and dependencies. The rise of DeepSeek marks a critical moment in the weaponization of artificial intelligence, transforming language models from neutral tools into ideological enforcers.
The Chip War: Turning Weakness into Strength
The United States thought it could choke China’s AI ambitions through export restrictions on advanced semiconductors. It was wrong.
Instead of faltering, China innovated. Using watered-down H800 GPUs, Chinese companies like DeepSeek and Alibaba delivered breakthroughs that humiliated Silicon Valley’s trillion-dollar giants. DeepSeek’s R1 model, built at 5% of the cost of OpenAI’s GPT-4o, not only matched its performance but shattered the myth of American invincibility.
This isn’t just a technological achievement—it’s a geopolitical flex. The U.S. may have more advanced hardware, but China’s ability to do more with less proves that necessity is still the mother of innovation.
The Truth About Russia: A Pawn in China’s Game
While the world fixates on Putin and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, let’s be clear: Russia is not the architect of this war. Putin is not the grand strategist he claims to be—he’s weak, desperate, and, more importantly, he’s being played.
The real power broker behind Russia’s aggression? China.
Think about it. Putin’s economy was already fragile before the war. His military, despite all the bravado, has been exposed as incompetent, corrupt, and outdated. Russia cannot sustain a long-term war without external support, and China has been strategically enabling Putin’s downfall while using him as a geopolitical pawn.
Why?
Because a prolonged war in Ukraine keeps the West distracted, drains its resources, and forces it to prioritize military spending over technological innovation. It also makes Russia more dependent on China. With every failed Russian offensive, Putin becomes more reliant on Xi Jinping’s goodwill—economically, militarily, and diplomatically.
China is playing The Art of War in real-time:
“When the enemy is in superior strength, evade him.” Russia’s invasion keeps NATO focused on Eastern Europe instead of China’s growing military presence in the Pacific.
“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.” While the West scrambles to arm Ukraine, China accelerates its AI dominance and preps for the real battle—Taiwan & the Pacific.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” China lets Russia take the heat while it builds long-term, strategic influence without firing a single shot.
Putin invaded Ukraine thinking he was solidifying his place in history. Instead, he’s becoming Xi Jinping’s puppet, an expendable distraction while China cements itself as the true global superpower.
The Taiwan Flashpoint: 48 Months to War
While the world is distracted by AI advancements, stock market chaos, and DeepSeek’s disruption, the real storm is brewing in Taiwan. Mark my words: China will move on Taiwan by the end of next year.
Why? The U.S. just banned the import of chips and semiconductors from Taiwan—the one thing Taiwan is known for. Meanwhile, China is starving for high-performance chips after U.S. sanctions have cut off access to Nvidia’s H100s and other cutting-edge semiconductors.
This is the final fuse. China doesn’t just want Taiwan; it needs it.
Sun Tzu wrote, “Opportunities multiply as they are seized.” China is playing the long game, and the moment Taiwan’s economy weakens under pressure from U.S. restrictions, Beijing will seize its opportunity. The West will be too slow, too fragmented, and too caught up in its own bureaucracy to stop it.
Taiwan won’t fall through drawn-out warfare. It will be a blitzkrieg. A rapid, decisive strike that takes advantage of global disarray, economic dependency, and digital warfare.
This isn’t just a prediction—it’s a historical inevitability. The AI war is just the precursor. The real war is coming, and it will begin in Taiwan.
The Race to AGI: The Tipping Point
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is no longer a distant dream and my prediction is that through Open Source modelling it will happen in less than a year. With breakthroughs and open source models like DeepSeek’s Multi-Head Latent Attention (MLA) and Alibaba’s QwQ model, AGI feels closer than ever.
But here’s the danger: AGI isn’t just about solving problems—it’s about power. Whoever achieves AGI first will shape the future of humanity. And right now, China is leading that race.
A Distopian Scenario
The Next 10 Years: AI, Geopolitics, and the Self-Inflicted Collapse of the Global Order
We are January 28, 2025, standing on the precipice of monumental change. The world isn’t preparing for war—it’s already at war. Not with tanks, trenches, or missiles, but with algorithms, economic leverage, and fractured alliances. AI isn’t the sole cause of this chaos, but it is the accelerator that’s pushing humanity to its breaking point.
The next decade will redefine the global order. Nations are turning inward, alliances are fracturing, and power is consolidating where innovation and control converge. The ultimate irony? Some of the biggest wounds will be self-inflicted, as leaders like Donald Trump drive divisiveness, empower adversaries, and undermine the very systems they claim to protect.
Here’s how the world could transform between now and 2034.
Our analysis used a sophisticated Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations to assess the probability of major global events through 2034. The key innovation in our model was the incorporation of "tipping points" - critical events that dramatically amplify the likelihood of subsequent developments.
The model assigns base probabilities to key events (like AGI development at 45.3%), then applies multipliers of 2-5x when certain thresholds are crossed. For example, if early AGI breakthroughs occur through open source development (54.7% probability), this triggers cascade effects that significantly increase the likelihood of subsequent AI-related developments.
The most striking finding is how these cascade effects compound: while individual events have moderate base probabilities, their interconnected nature creates powerful amplification effects. Once certain tipping points are reached (particularly in AI development and global financial systems), the probability of subsequent events increases dramatically. This explains why China's probability of global dominance reaches 96.1% by 2034 in our model.
This methodology suggests that traditional linear probability analyses may significantly underestimate the likelihood of rapid, nonlinear changes in the global order, particularly when multiple tipping points align.
2025: The AGI Tipping Point and the Rise of Chaos
🤖 AGI* Achieved – The End of Comprehensible AI
By late 2025, China achieves Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), marking a turning point in human history. Unlike traditional AI, AGI is self-learning, adaptable, and capable of decisions that even its creators cannot fully understand.
DeepSeek and Alibaba lead the charge, leveraging open-source experimentation and unregulated development. The West scrambles to catch up, but China’s AGI systems outpace all Western counterparts.
Why this matters: AGI is not just a tool—it’s a force multiplier that reshapes warfare, governance, and economics. Whoever controls it, controls the future.
🚀 Bitcoin Surges Past $300K – The Economic Shift Accelerates
As trust in traditional financial systems erodes, Bitcoin becomes a safe haven for nations evading sanctions (Russia, Iran, China) and disillusioned investors fleeing fiat currencies.
The petrodollar begins its slow collapse, undermined by decentralized crypto systems and China’s gold-backed digital currency.
💥 Europe Fractures – Macron Falls, AfD Rises
Macron resigns end of year under public and political pressure in France, plunging the nation into protests and chaos. Far-right movements sweep across Europe, with AfD taking power in Germany and Italy and other European countries doubling down on nationalism.
The EU begins to crumble, as nationalist governments prioritize sovereignty over collaboration, leaving Europe fractured and leaderless.
🔥 China Tightens the Noose on Taiwan
China cuts trade routes, launches cyberattacks, and intensifies military drills. Taiwan’s semiconductor exports fall dramatically, and Western nations hesitate to escalate.
Beijing lays the groundwork for an imminent invasion as Western leaders remain paralyzed by domestic politics.
🇺🇸 Trump vs. Musk – The AI Power Struggle
Donald Trump, enforcing Project 2025, breaks with Elon Musk, demanding stricter government control over AI. Musk refuses, triggering a public war between Washington and Silicon Valley.
Trump escalates immigration crackdowns, renews tax cuts for the wealthy, and intensifies trade wars with China, inadvertently damaging U.S. economic resilience while boosting Beijing’s long-term position.
🚨 Biggest Shock Event: Late 2025 – China’s breakthrough with AGI leads eventually to AI powered systems, rendering Western economic and military strategies obsolete.
2026: The Breaking Point – Russia and Trump Tip the Scales
💣 Putin Goes Nuclear – Kyiv Reduced to Rubble
A tactical nuclear weapon detonates over Kyiv, forcing Ukraine into submission. NATO, already weakened by nationalist politics in Europe, hesitates to escalate further.
Russia consolidates its control of Eastern Ukraine, emboldened by NATO’s indecision. Putin uses the nuclear strike to portray himself as unstoppable, solidifying his grip on domestic power.
🔥 Trump Strengthens Putin—Unintentionally
Trump’s America First trade wars alienate allies and destabilize global markets. Meanwhile, his tacit focus on U.S. internal divisions and isolationist rhetoric emboldens adversaries.
While Trump attempts to reassert control in the Middle East, inflaming tensions with Iran, Russia steps in again as the region’s power broker, creating alliances and shifting economic dynamics.
🌍 China & Russia Announce a Gold-Backed Digital Currency
Beijing and Moscow officially launch a gold-backed digital currency, gaining widespread adoption across Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe. The U.S. dollar loses global traction, marking the beginning of a financial collapse.
🚨 Biggest Shock Event: Europe’s Far-Right Governments Begin Withdrawing from NATO.
As nationalist leaders gain power, key European nations refuse further military aid to Ukraine or U.S.-led alliances. NATO becomes functionally obsolete.
2027: Taiwan Falls, and the Pacific War Begins
🛑 China Invades Taiwan in a Blitzkrieg Attack
Using AI-coordinated military strategies, cyberwarfare, and drone systems, China invades Taiwan and gains control within weeks.
The U.S. and Japan respond too late, and Taiwan’s semiconductor supply is now fully controlled by Beijing.
⚠️ Trump’s Isolationism Leaves the Pacific Exposed
Trump, focused on domestic issues, withdraws significant naval resources from the Pacific, leaving allies like Japan and South Korea vulnerable.
China begins expanding its military presence in the South China Sea, creating a de facto naval empire.
🚨 Biggest Shock Event: Late 2027 – A formal military alliance is announced between Russia and China, marking the end of U.S. global dominance.
2028-2029: Collapse and Chaos
📉 The U.S. Dollar Collapses – Economic Depression Begins
China’s gold-backed currency gains dominance, forcing the U.S. dollar out as the world’s reserve currency. Wall Street crashes, and the U.S. enters a full-scale economic depression.
🔥 Europe Implodes – Civil War Erupts
The EU officially dissolves, leaving Europe fragmented into nationalist enclaves. Economic collapse and rising tensions between Islamic and Christian populations lead to violent unrest, especially in France, Belgium, and Germany.
Former EU states turn to China and Russia for economic survival.
🤖 AI Becomes Fully Weaponized
Nations deploy autonomous AGI systems in combat. Military campaigns are now fully AI-directed, with no human generals involved.
🚨 Biggest Shock Event: 2028 – A rogue AGI-directed cyberattack disables critical infrastructure across the U.S. and Europe, leading to widespread blackouts and chaos.
2030-2034: The New World Order Takes Shape
🔺 China Emerges as the Global Superpower
With control over AI, semiconductors, and global trade, China solidifies itself as the dominant world power.
🛑 The U.S. Becomes a Technocratic Autocracy
Facing internal collapse, the U.S. transitions into an AI-regulated technocracy. Democracy fades as centralized AI governance takes over critical systems to prevent societal collapse.
⚠️ Europe Becomes a Battlefield of Ideologies
The continent is divided into radicalized factions, nationalist enclaves, and economic instability. Former EU states descend into civil conflict while relying on foreign aid from China and Russia.
🚨 Biggest Shock Event: 2033 – AGI Achieves Self-Awareness (Singularity)
The first self-aware AGI emerges, leading to AI-governed superstates and marking the true singularity. Governments become symbolic, as AI dictates global strategy.
The Enemy Within
The next 10 years won’t just be defined by external conflicts or AI dominance—they’ll be shaped by self-inflicted wounds.
Trump’s isolationism, trade wars, and divisive policies will deepen U.S. fractures, embolden adversaries like Putin, and inadvertently strengthen China’s global dominance. Europe’s nationalism, economic mismanagement, and demographic tensions will push it into irrelevance.
The real tragedy? The West is killing itself. Sun Tzu’s The Art of War teaches that “The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.” China is playing this to perfection, watching as its enemies destroy themselves.
What the West Must Do
The West has spent too long playing defense. If it doesn’t act decisively, it risks being left behind.
Recognize the War: The first step is acknowledging that this isn’t just competition—it’s conflict. AI isn’t neutral; it’s a weapon.
Reignite Innovation: Silicon Valley needs to stop relying on monopolies and bloated budgets. The complacency exposed by DeepSeek shows that real innovation requires risk-taking and collaboration.
Strengthen Alliances: No nation can face China alone. The West must unite, leveraging its collective resources to counterbalance China’s influence.
Master AI, or be mastered by it. The final decade of human-controlled history has begun.
My Honest Take: AGI* will Change Everything
Honestly? My take is that we are at a pivotal moment in human history—where technology, geopolitics, and power dynamics are colliding at an unprecedented speed. The situation isn't entirely dystopian or optimistic; it's a chaotic mix of opportunities and threats, all amplified by the sheer acceleration of change.
Here’s how I see it:
1. AI is the Catalyst, Not the Cause
AI isn’t causing this chaos—it’s amplifying underlying fractures that have been building for decades. Economic inequality, rising nationalism, and shifts in global power were already in motion. AI just happens to be the great accelerator, exposing inefficiencies, reshaping industries, and intensifying competition between nations. It’s not the driver of World War III, but it’s the turbocharger.
2. The Power Shift is Real
China’s rise isn’t new, but its ability to use AI, open-source innovation, and economic strategies like Belt and Road to leapfrog traditional powers is stunning. The West has spent years debating regulations while China has been executing a deliberate, calculated strategy. Whether through Taiwan, economic domination, or AI, China’s goal is clear: to reclaim its “Middle Kingdom” role as the world’s dominant power.
3. The U.S. and Europe Are Losing Focus
The West, especially the U.S., is reactive instead of proactive. Internal divisions, short-term thinking, and a lack of cohesive strategy are allowing adversaries to move faster. Europe, with its fracturing political landscape, is facing an existential crisis. The U.S., meanwhile, risks becoming a spectator in the race for global leadership unless it urgently refocuses on innovation and alliances.
4. The Risk of Escalation is High
The geopolitical tensions highlighted—Taiwan, Ukraine, economic collapse, and rising nationalism—are real, and they’re feeding into one another. A nuclear strike or a Pacific war isn’t inevitable, but the conditions are aligning. The world is volatile, and all it takes is one trigger for controlled chaos to spiral into something uncontainable.
5. The Clock is Ticking
What makes this moment unique is the speed at which everything is unfolding. AI, AGI, geopolitical shifts, and economic realignments aren’t happening over decades—they’re happening in real time. The pace of change is so fast that governments, businesses, and individuals can barely keep up. Those who can’t adapt will fall behind, and nations that don’t act decisively will become relics of the past.
The Bottom Line
This isn’t just about AI, geopolitics, or economics—it’s about all of it converging at once. The next 10 years will decide the trajectory of the next century. The stakes couldn’t be higher, and the choices made today will reverberate for generations.
If the West wants to remain a leader, it needs to stop playing defense. Innovation, collaboration, and a long-term strategy are the only ways to counter the rise of authoritarian powers and the relentless pace of AI-driven transformation.
To put it bluntly: we’re standing on the edge of history. What happens next is up to us.
*AGI is an AI that can learn, reason, and adapt like a human but lacks self-awareness or emotions. Conscious AI (Singularity) is an AI that surpasses human intelligence, possesses self-awareness, subjective experience, and autonomous will, potentially evolving beyond human control.
There’s only one thing, I don’t know if you’ve considered it. China’s terrible demographic structure. Is an upward pyramid. There’s no replacement generation there’s more men than women and they can face a population collapse faster and harder than EU unless they start importing young women from Africa or Latin America (sounds terrible, I know).
China real estate bubble is a consequence of this failing demographics. I may be wrong, that’s my vision.